I agree that a lot can change in the next 13 months (ie Afghanistan will be out of the collective consciousness).

I still think the enthusiasm gap is a problem, including in the poll you mentioned. A Democracy Corps survey found that 68% of R’s were engaged for 2022 compared to 57% for D’s

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/gop-leads-democrats-in-2022-enthusiasm-by-double-digits-poll/ar-BB1gPZ6y