Hi Ben, thanks for the engagement. You raise some strong points that challenge my argument.

I agree that, while issues like Afghanistan may vanish from Americans’ minds, controversies like voting rights laws will not. Many Dem voters will run through a wall to stop this increasingly conspiratorial GOP from returning to power.

It’s interesting, the election “fraud” narrative may backfire, but isn’t that the whole point of Republican governors passing these voting laws? I sense that the party is trying to signal to its base, “we’ve changed the election rules, it’s safe now, please go out and vote for us!” Even if the laws are a solution to a non-existent problem, I think they may help boost GOP turnout. In states like Georgia, where Trumpists stayed home in the special election, I anticipate the Republicans flipping the senate seat in 2022.

Like you said, a lot can happen in the next year+ and I am not so much making a prediction as I am evaluating existing indicators.